Ethereum is making efforts to rebound following a significant drop beneath the $2.4K support level, currently trading at approximately $2.45K. The rebound has returned the price to the upper boundary of a significant demand zone; however, the market must demonstrate that buyers can maintain this area before a broader recovery can be deemed back on track. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index has reached its lowest negative level in several months, indicating that demand within the United States continues to be subdued despite the recent uptick. On the daily timeframe, Ethereum remains within the ascending channel that has directed its recovery from the June lows around $1.5K. The notable rally in August propelled ETH from the $1.9K range to $2.5K, subsequently advancing into the $2.8K supply zone by late September. Sellers defended that region, and the subsequent decline pushed the price below the channel’s midpoint. The correction has now positioned ETH within the emphasised $2.4K demand zone, coinciding with the ascending lower boundary of the channel. This confluence renders the area particularly noteworthy.
Yesterday, the price briefly dipped below the zone to around $2.3K before buyers intervened, and the most recent daily candles indicate a slight recovery back above $2.4K. If buyers persist in upholding this support level, ETH may endeavour to make another ascent toward the channel midpoint around $2.8K, thereby reintroducing the $2.8K-$3K supply zone into consideration, where the advance in September encountered a halt. Conversely, a decisive daily close below $2.3K would indicate a breakdown from both the demand zone and the ascending channel, significantly undermining the recovery structure. In that scenario, the next major support is located at the $1.9K order block, which signifies the foundation of the robust rally observed in August. The 4-hour chart illustrates Ethereum’s movement within a broadening ascending structure that has been in place since late August, as indicated by the orange trendlines. Following the price’s ascent to the upper threshold around $2.8K in September, momentum diminished, leading to a consolidation phase for ETH within the range of roughly $2.6K to $2.8K, before experiencing a sharp decline in early October. The decline resulted in a succession of lower highs, while the mid-October rebound encountered resistance near $2.5K. The recent sell-off has consequently driven ETH beneath the lower trendline of the wedge and through the $2.4K demand zone, momentarily touching the $2.3K region.
However, the price swiftly rebounded above both the zone and the trendline, indicating that the movement may have constituted a liquidity sweep rather than a definitive breakdown. In the immediate term, maintaining a position above $2.4K would bolster the effort for stabilisation and may pave the way toward the $2.6K rebound high. Clearing that barrier would interrupt the sequence of lower highs and potentially bring the 2.7K region, where the earlier consolidation broke down, back into play. On the downside, a renewed loss of the trendline and a 4-hour close beneath $2.3K would invalidate the recent recovery and expose the asset to further selling pressure. The structure therefore positions ETH at a short-term inflection point, with the reaction around $2.4K likely to influence the subsequent move. The Coinbase Premium Index on CryptoQuant quantifies the percentage disparity between the ETH price on Coinbase Pro, a platform predominantly utilised by US investors, and that on Binance. Positive readings indicate stronger buying pressure from US-based participants, while negative readings suggest relatively weaker demand on Coinbase. The chart indicates that the premium sustained a predominantly positive trajectory from August to October 2025, coinciding with ETH trading above $4K.
The metric then turned persistently negative from November 2025 onwards, a period that coincided with the decline toward the $2,000 region in early 2026 and, later, the drop to approximately $1,500 in June. Short-lived positive phases in March and April 2026 were marked by only temporary recoveries. More recently, the index briefly returned to slightly positive territory in late August and early September during the rally toward $2.8K. Since then, however, the readings have reverted to negative territory and recently declined to around -0.1, marking the lowest level since the summer. This does not necessarily imply that the recent bounce will be unsuccessful, as price may rebound due to offshore demand or derivatives activity. However, a sustained negative premium suggests that US spot buyers are not presently at the forefront of the market. If the premium continues to exhibit weakness while ETH faces challenges in regaining the $2.6K level, the $2.4K support zone may face renewed pressure. Conversely, a recovery toward zero would bolster the argument for a sustainable base.
