Ethereum experienced its most significant quarterly rise since the start of the year in Q3. The 70.8% increase that occurred in the third quarter outperformed the previous high, Q3 2025, which saw a 66.55% increase, and lifted Ethereum higher than where it ended after two weak quarters. This contrast is noteworthy, as Ethereum faced a decrease of 29.26% in Q1 followed by an additional decline of 25.28% in Q2. The 13.20% average quarterly return according to data indicates that this rebound was markedly more robust than usual. However, there are indications that the quarterly returns may be less impressive in the fourth quarter for Ethereum. The median return for the fourth quarter has declined to 0.36%, in contrast to the historical average return of 16.97%.
Consequently, the continuation of the recovery hinges on the ability of robust Q3 momentum to extend into the forthcoming quarter. Ethereum’s robust performance in the third quarter has captured the interest of significant investors. Large holders seem to be recalibrating their positions in anticipation of potential price escalations for Ethereum. Consequently, a wallet linked to Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin executed a transfer of 133,298 ETH, amounting to $356.2 million, into a newly established wallet. Although this transaction has not transitioned directly from the wallet to an exchange, it does not exhibit immediate selling pressure. Instead, it indicates substantial capital inflow into ETH following its 70.8% quarterly rise.
Meanwhile, another significant market participant established a $40.6 million long position in ETH and simultaneously initiated a $33.62 million short position in Bitcoin. These trades appear to focus on an outperforming ETH in contrast to a lacklustre crypto market. Therefore, they are based upon the strong performance of ETH over Bitcoin, which closed at 42.71% in Q3. Together, transactions suggest that significant holders are starting to reposition themselves as they contemplate their forthcoming strategies. However, these trades will ultimately hinge on the occurrence of additional transfers and any subsequent adjustments to their positions. Ethereum’s recent outperformance in Q3 is currently being evaluated in comparison to Bitcoin. The ETH to BTC ratio has increased from 0.0316 to a peak of 0.0325 before experiencing a pullback. Buyers demonstrated support at 0.0319, successfully pushing the ratio back up toward 0.0323.
This matters because if the ratio continues its upward trajectory, it will suggest that investors are still favouring ETH over BTC following the quarterly rally. Derivatives positioning enhances that preference, with Hyperliquid maintaining over $3.1 billion in ETH Open Interest. Funding remains slightly positive at approximately 0.00125% per hour, indicating that long positions are prevalent without evident indications of excessive crowding. Therefore, ongoing purchases of ETH could facilitate the sustained rise of the ETH to BTC ratio. Conversely, diminished activity in the Spot market may result in a reversal of the trend, potentially leading to a decline in ETH’s relative performance.
