Ethereum’s price has finally provided bulls with a favourable scenario to capitalise on. After declining to $2,360.70 around September 16, ETH surged to $2,668 per coin before stabilising around $2,600, regaining levels not observed since January. Yet when one takes a broader perspective, the resurgence appears markedly distinct. Ether remains approximately 47% below its peak in October 2025, which was near $4,946. Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC ratio is currently around 0.032, significantly lower than its 2021 high of approximately 0.08. That gap is exactly why the year-end debate has become intriguing. ETH’s price has spent much of this cycle trailing bitcoin’s price, but roughly 35% of its supply is now staked, exchange balances have been falling, and spot ETH ETFs hold around $16.7 billion in assets. Following over $400 million in midweek outflows, approximately $144 million was reinvested on September 18. Demand exists. A stampede, it is not.
Tom Lee has articulated a notably clear bullish trajectory. If Bitcoin reaches $150,000 and ETH/BTC recovers to 0.04, his calculations suggest that Ethereum could approach $6,000 by December. Arthur Hayes has taken a bold step, designating ETH as his largest position and proposing a speculative target of $10,000 by the end of 2026, predicated on a significant expansion of liquidity. Geoff Kendrick has set a target of $4,000 for the end of 2026, while Citi has previously revised its 12-month target down to $2,240. That leaves Wall Street and the prominent figures in cryptocurrency examining the same asset yet arriving at fundamentally divergent conclusions. The peculiar aspect is that they are predominantly monitoring the same components. ETF flows require enhancement, ETH must strengthen its position relative to bitcoin, and macroeconomic conditions must remain stable. A $6,000-$10,000 ethereum price isn’t merely today’s rally with a few more green candles attached.
Ethereum is currently positioned above almost all significant daily moving averages, encompassing its 50-day simple moving average at $2,272.50 and its 200-day simple moving average at $2,076.10. However, momentum has diminished, with resistance positioned between 2,655 and 2,668, and an additional technical zone extending toward 2,672. A sustained break through that area puts 2,800-3,000 in play. Failure brings $2,400 back into the discussion. In other words, prior to any engraving of $6,000 on the trophy, ETH must demonstrate its ability to sustain the breakout it has already achieved. Then comes Glamsterdam. Sepolia is set for October 6, while the Ethereum mainnet upgrade remains slated for the fourth quarter.
The fork aims to enhance throughput, enable parallel execution, increase blob capacity, and modify the construction of blocks. It is unlikely to result in a threefold increase in ETH, but a well-executed launch could provide the market with an additional impetus to reconsider the narrative surrounding Ethereum’s scaling capabilities. That leaves Q4 with a surprisingly straightforward scoreboard: 2,550-2,672, ETF flows, ETH/BTC, and Glamsterdam. Ethereum has managed to recover to $2,600. Transforming that recovery into $4,000, $6,000, or the more pronounced $10,000 calls marks the conclusion of the straightforward phase.
