Ethereum has made a slight comeback after discovering support at $1.5K earlier this month. However, mood data show that buyers have not yet taken back control of the market, and the asset is still below important technical obstacles. The latter in particular demonstrates a weak institutional demand, indicating that recovery efforts may encounter significant obstacles. ETH is still firmly inside the sizable declining channel on the daily timescale, which has been guiding price movement lower for a number of months. The asset has now turned into resistance after breaking below the crucial $1.85K support level. Selling pressure into the main demand zone at about $1.5K increased as a result of the collapse. This zone, which also happens to be the channel’s midline, has been successful in stopping the slide thus far, resulting in a relief bounce back into the $1.8K range.
ETH is still trading below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are sloping downward in the $2.1K–$2.4K region, although the asset was rejected from the $1.8k zone, and the overall structure is still negative. The biggest resistance cluster overhead is now located in the prior support zone near $2K. If there isn’t a clear breakout above the declining channel, a recovery into that region would probably draw more selling attention. However, the current trend favours sellers as long as ETH stays below $1.85K and below the channel barrier. A collapse below that demand zone would allow for a deeper loss towards the channel’s bottom limit below the $1.2K mark, while a decline from present levels might reveal the $1.5K support region once again.
A sharper image is presented in the 4-hour timeframe. ETH created a rising channel and started to carve out higher lows after the steep selloff into the $1.5K support region. The price was able to rise toward the $1.8K resistance level thanks to this recovery structure, but sellers soon took back control and drove the asset back down. Its short-term significance is confirmed by the resistant area’s rejection. Since then, ETH is stabilising at about $1.7K after breaking below the rising channel. Additionally, the RSI is now hovering in neutral area, suggesting that while negative momentum has subsided, purchasers have not yet seen a significant change. The current rally started at $1.5K, which is still immediate support. However, the market may fall significantly below this range if the broken ascending channel’s measured move occurs. On the upside, in order to create more robust rebound momentum, buyers still need to recapture the $1.8K resistance area. However, the general pessimistic attitude is still prevalent as of right now.
Ethereum is still receiving a negative signal from the Coinbase Premium Index. This indicator, which frequently acts as a stand-in for institutional and spot demand in the United States, calculates the price differential between ETH traded on Coinbase and other significant exchanges. While negative readings imply lower demand and more selling pressure, positive readings often show more purchasing activity from Coinbase users. The latest data shows the Coinbase Premium Index remains largely below zero, with recent levels reaching -0.1. This is one of the lowest demand times for Coinbase since the start of the previous year. Notably, the worsening in the premium has occurred with ETH’s price decrease, which strengthens the idea that U.S.-based investors have not yet returned aggressively to the market. In the past, consistent positive premium readings have frequently coincided with long-term Ethereum recovery. Until the measure can retake and maintain above the neutral line, order flow implies that rallies may continue to face selling pressure rather than broad-based accumulation.