The Ethereum price has increased approximately 6% this week and is currently approaching significant resistance around $2,439. However, US spot ETF investors have not recorded a single day of net inflows since September 29, according to reports. Some traders contend that the pace of institutional adoption has exceeded the corresponding price movements. On-chain data, however, indicates a diminishing demand underlying the recent movement. The 14-day moving average of active Ethereum addresses declined to approximately 365,000 on October 17, according to data. That marked the lowest reading since December 2025. The metric has since experienced a modest recovery, approaching 375,000. It is currently retracing toward the low observed in October. The decline appears more pronounced when compared to the peak of nearly 800,000 observed on February 9. However, that spike occurred amidst a pronounced sell-off and likely indicated capitulation activity. A more equitable baseline is the spring range of 500,000 to 550,000. In relation to that range, activity remains approximately 25% to 30% lower. More importantly, activity diverged from price. Active addresses reached a high of approximately 470,000 in mid-August, subsequently experiencing a decline during the rally observed in August and September.
This indicates that the ascent toward $2,800 was characterised by a deficiency in widespread network involvement. The metric exclusively monitors mainnet addresses, thereby excluding any activity occurring on Layer-2 (L2) networks. Meanwhile, long-dormant whales transacted over $140 million in ETH during October. A recovery above the mid-August high near 470,000 would alleviate the bearish signal. Demand for ETFs reflects a comparable narrative. US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds have not experienced any net inflow days since September 29, according to data. By October 30, the run had extended to 23 consecutive sessions of outflows. According to data, this represents the longest streak since the funds were launched. In October, the funds experienced an outflow of $1.61 billion, marking the largest monthly withdrawal since their inception in July 2024. On November 3, the funds experienced a decline of $85.35 million, as reported by SoSoValue. Data providers exhibit minor variations, however. SoSoValue experienced a modest net inflow of $15 million on October 21, marking a singular deviation in an otherwise consistent trend of outflows. The flows also elucidate the preceding rally.
ETH’s August surge aligned with the most significant inflow wave depicted on the chart, featuring multiple sessions exceeding 70,000 ETH. That demand has now reversed. With network activity also diminishing, no definitive buyer has emerged to take its place. A return to consistent daily inflows would be the most definitive indicator of a resurgence in institutional demand. On the weekly chart, ETH continues to exhibit a more extensive downtrend. Each major peak since the 4,958 all-time high has been progressively lower. The price peaked around $3,400 at the beginning of the year and approached $2,800 in late September. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $2,920 transitioned from a support level in 2024 to a resistance level in 2026. Lows have also decreased, from approximately $1,750 in February to around $1,520 in mid-2026. However, the local structure has seen enhancements since that time. The September high surpassed the spring high of approximately $2,470, establishing a higher high. A higher low at current levels would complete a local uptrend and could signal a reversal. The weekly Relative Strength Index sits near 50, which is neutral. It remains below its signal line, so momentum has not confirmed a turn yet. Volume has contracted since February, pointing to consolidation rather than accumulation.
The 0.786 Fibonacci level at $1,754 remains the strongest support, tested at least four times since 2023. The daily chart shows ETH rebounding from a rising trend line near $2,200. That line has guided price higher since the late-June low. The latest daily candle pushed above the Bollinger Bands midline and is testing the 0.618 retracement at $2,439. Daily RSI has also crossed above its signal line. However, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing. A squeeze often precedes a sharp move, but it does not reveal the direction. Volume has trended lower since August, so the breakout attempt lacks confirmation. In addition, the two trend lines converge, forming a rising wedge that often resolves to the downside. The upper wedge line meets the 0.5 Fibonacci level near $2,920 to $2,950. That establishes a robust resistance cluster above the price. A daily close above $2,439 would pave the way to the upper Bollinger Band near $2,500. Beyond it, the target sits at 2,920 to 2,950, roughly 21% above 2,410. A daily close below 2,200 would confirm a wedge breakdown. That scenario aims for $1,754, which represents a decline of approximately 27% from $2,410.
The downside target appears to be somewhat more substantial. In conjunction with the lacklustre on-chain data, the prevailing risk seems to favour a bearish outlook at this time. Nonetheless, there exists a degree of support for the bulls. Significant exchange outflows in October reflected a trend previously observed prior to the rebound in June. Ethereum’s next major upgrade, Glamsterdam, may serve as a significant catalyst. Proponents of a bullish outlook over the longer term highlight macroeconomic indicators. Analyst Ted Pillows associates ETH’s previous parabolic movements with the expansion of US manufacturing. However, the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index recorded a value of 55.5 in October. That marked a 10th consecutive month of expansion; however, ETH experienced a decline during the same timeframe. Currently, the rebound requires a resurgence in ETF demand or a recovery in network activity to sustain itself. Without either, $2,200 remains the pivotal level that determines the subsequent direction.
