Since February, Ethereum has been considered ‘cheap’ following a decline in price that fell below its overall cost basis of $2.3K. This indicates that a greater number of holders are experiencing losses, which subsequently diminishes selling pressure and mitigates downside risks. However, crypto analytic cautioned that a durable bottom could still be elusive in the medium term. According to the firm, the final market cycle bottom could occur if ETH reaches $1.15K, referencing a 2022 pattern derived from the Realised Price Bands metric. During the 2022 bear market cycle, the altcoin established a definitive bottom after reaching the lower band of the metric (dotted green line).
Assuming the projection turns positive, it implies that a durable ETH bottom could be feasible if it declines by 38% from the current value of $1,885. There were three additional indicators concerning Bitcoin that suggested ETH remained significantly distant from reaching its ultimate floor price.Initially, the relative selling pressure on ETH, as indicated by the ETH/BTC Exchange Inflows Ratio, was merely at the midpoint of the threshold that signified the previous market bottom (green zone). At this juncture, the metric reading stood at 0.8, having previously declined to 0.4 during the troughs of 2020 and 2025.
Secondly, another valuation metric, the ETH/BTC MVRV, is currently positioned midway between the bottom levels observed during the 2020 cycle and the local market bottoms anticipated in 2025. In the two periods, ETH exhibited a reversal following a decline into the 0.025 oversold territory (green). As of writing, the metric was slightly above 0.05, indicating that it remains significantly distant from signalling the previous market bottom. Similarly, relative ETH/BTC ETF holdings exhibited a positive trend in the second half of the year for the first time since the previous year. While there was an uptick in ETF demand, it did not decline to the levels observed in 2025.
Overall, only spot volumes and Ethereum realised price bands indicated that the altcoin was undervalued and approaching historical bottom territories. That said, with over 41 million ETH supply in loss, nearly a similar amount has been staked, marking a record 33% staking ratio. Whether the robust demand for staking will further mitigate downside risk remains to be observed.