Ethereum experienced a downturn on Tuesday, hovering just above $2,080 as the broader crypto market showed signs of weakness — a figure significantly below a crucial level pinpointed by expert Ali Martinez as the catalyst for a prolonged macro bull run. In a detailed analysis shared on social media platform X, Martinez argued that reaching a realized price near $2,500 would mark the moment when the average holder starts to see profits, suggesting the end of the market’s “cooling period” and setting the stage for a possible resurgence and extended rally. Martinez examined the recent price trends, suggesting that Ethereum could be forming an ascending triangle pattern. In that scenario, he establishes a “line in the sand” at approximately $1,800, emphasizing that this figure closely aligns with the 0.80 MVRV pricing band around $1,880.
MVRV, or Market Value to Realized Value, is a metric that compares an asset’s market price to the average price paid by holders. Martinez describes the 0.80 band as a “Average Receipt” indicator, historically associated with cycle bottoms. When the band is reached, he stated, the cryptocurrency market frequently finds itself in a condition of “extreme pain,” a period where selling typically runs its course and long-term holders begin to take action. Alongside the ascending triangle scenario, Martinez identified a more pessimistic option. If Ethereum’s price is truly confined within a parallel channel rather than an ascending triangle, he warned that a more substantial reset might be approaching. In that scenario, he is monitoring the channel’s outer boundaries at around 1,550 and 1,070. To enhance these insights, he referenced the URPD — the UTXO Realized Price Distribution, a resource that illustrates the prices at which current ETH last transacted.
Martinez describes this distribution as “the market’s memory,” emphasizing levels where substantial groups of coins were acquired and where robust buy pressure is anticipated to arise. Martinez’s URPD read indicates that the most substantial buy walls beneath the 0.80 MVRV band are positioned at approximately $1,584, $1,238, and $1,089. If these price clusters are examined, they could offer considerable support as holders who purchased assets at those levels work to maintain their positions. Martinez suggests that accumulation is anticipated in the “low‑thousands”; however, he stressed that the “start engine” for the next major upward movement depends on Ethereum regaining its realized price at $2,500.
According to Martinez, if Ethereum manages to break and hold above a certain level, the technical and on-chain indicators would suggest a “target-rich environment.” His analysis indicates a potential near-term increase toward a significant level linked to the structure of the ascending triangle — and ultimately toward the 2.40 MVRV band, which would signify a new all-time high for the Ethereum price. Experts suggest that reaching those zones would show that average holders have regained profitability, marking a crucial shift in the market from accumulation to a broader speculative phase.