Ethereum is currently trading at approximately $2,350, standing at a crucial juncture that is poised to shape its path in the upcoming weeks. The asset has dedicated much of April to establishing a foundation for a legitimate bullish reversal. Although the case is not yet finalized, the data across various timeframes is subtly gathering support for the buyers. The daily chart indicates that ETH is once again testing the $2.4K resistance zone for the third time in recent weeks. The 100-day MA is now converging with the upper boundary of the channel, as the price faces challenges in maintaining its position above both levels. The RSI has consistently stayed above 50 over the last few weeks, suggesting that buyer momentum is strong and a breakout above $2.4K appears increasingly probable.
ETH is maintaining its position above $2300, and should it surpass the $2.4K threshold, the next target will be the $2800 level, which presents significant resistance due to the declining 200-day MA. On the downside, a daily close below the $2K psychological level would serve as the first genuine warning sign. However, considering the current market momentum and structure, a breakout above $2.4K remains the more likely scenario. The short-term ascending channel that has directed ETH’s price movement since the late March lows faced challenges earlier this week, as the cryptocurrency momentarily dipped below the lower boundary. However, the breakdown was swiftly absorbed, leading to a price rebound back within the channel. This scenario exemplifies a classic bear trap, ultimately reinforcing the bullish case instead of undermining it. False breakdowns of this nature, where sellers fail to follow through below a key trendline, and buyers quickly reclaim it, often precede accelerated moves in the opposite direction, as trapped shorts are compelled to cover.
ETH is hovering around $2,350, positioned just beneath the $2.4K resistance level, while the lower boundary of the ascending channel, now around $2.2K, is serving as a strong support floor. The RSI is currently positioned near 50, indicating potential for upward movement, and the unsuccessful breakdown has revitalized the short-term scenario, setting the stage for another push towards $2.4k. The current trend indicates that the market is more likely to achieve success compared to previous efforts. Ethereum’s exchange reserve has plummeted to around 14.5M ETH, marking a new low in the dataset and a significant decline from the 16M level observed just weeks ago during the February crash. The recent weeks have seen a notable acceleration in the decline, with reserves plummeting more sharply than at any other time throughout the correction phase.
The timing of this accelerating outflow is noteworthy. As the price makes a push to break above a significant resistance level, the rising rate of coins exiting exchanges indicates that holders are opting to withdraw and hold, rather than preparing to sell into the strength. This represents a stark contrast to distribution behavior. The failed channel breakdown on the 4-hour chart, when combined with the exchange reserve data, introduces a significant on-chain aspect to the bullish technical setup. Buyers are not just holding strong at critical chart levels; the supply dynamics are also tightening precisely as a breakout attempt reaches maturity.