Ethereum has dropped beneath its long-term swing low of $2,111, established in June 2025. In the last 10 days, this previous low has acted as a barrier, thwarting the bulls’ efforts to drive prices upward. Whale deposits to centralized exchanges, coupled with a declining taker buy-sell ratio, indicated a clear dominance of sellers in the market execution. The ongoing decrease in ETH exchange reserves suggests a narrative of supply scarcity and strategic long-term positioning. The transfer of ETH to high-conviction, long-term holders restricts the speed of distribution and indicates a trend of capital consolidation, as reported. The total Ethereum locked in staking contracts has hit a record high as well.
In the long-term, ETH seemed to be coiled tightly like a spring. As macro conditions evolve and market sentiment transforms with capital re-entering the crypto realm, the potential for an explosive unwinding in the spring becomes increasingly likely. However, until that moment arrives, traders and investors must remain patient. The current market sentiment has been decidedly negative. As of now, the $2.1k-level stands as a local resistance, while the $2,500-$2,750 range is shaping up to be another supply zone above. The OBV, similar to the price action, has been registering lower lows and lower highs since October – indicative of a downtrend. The MACD dipped below the zero line, yet its bullish crossover indicated the previous ten days’ efforts to rise back above $2.1k.
The 3-month liquidation heatmap indicated that a significant concentration of liquidations was forming in the $3.4k-$3.8k range. This situation was too distant to prompt immediate action from traders. In the local scene, two magnetic zones are forming around the $1.55k-$1.7k range and the $2.15k-$2.55k range. Following a sharp price movement, the market often enters a consolidation phase, moving sideways to accumulate liquidity in both directions. Once a band is collected, it often reverses to the opposite side, effectively ensnaring breakout traders. For Ethereum, this indicates that a decline towards $1.6k could potentially offer a long-term buying opportunity in the months ahead. This is not to suggest that $1.5k-$1.6k will mark the market bottom – it also hinges on Bitcoin and broader macroeconomic factors.
Prior to that, a consolidation phase between $1.8k and $2.1k seems probable. A potential rise to $2.5k in the coming month or two is on the table, though it comes with a significant chance of encountering another bearish price reaction. Ethereum’s shift towards high conviction, long-term holders restricts its distribution potential. This does not constitute an immediate buy signal. Expect a period of consolidation over the next few months before we can anticipate a bullish recovery to take shape.