Ethereum is facing challenges in regaining the $3,100 mark as price movements become more constrained and the market prepares for a pivotal shift. Following weeks of volatile trading, ETH finds itself trapped between waning bullish efforts and ongoing overhead resistance, resulting in a stark divide among analysts regarding the future direction. A segment of the market remains optimistic about Ethereum’s potential to recover and possibly reach its previous all-time highs. However, the prevailing sentiment suggests a bearish outlook for 2026, characterized by diminished demand and stricter liquidity conditions. In the midst of this uncertainty, a report provides a long-term outlook that pierces through the short-term distractions. The analysis delves into Ethereum’s Accumulating Addresses Realized Price, a key metric that monitors the average cost basis of addresses that persistently accumulate ETH instead of engaging in active trading. This measure stands apart from momentum indicators, showcasing the willingness of long-term participants to commit capital over extended periods.
This accumulation cost has shown a consistent upward trend since 2020. Throughout the intense drawdown of 2022–2023, as ETH experienced a significant price correction, long-term holders predominantly maintained their positions rather than succumbing to panic selling. The behavior laid a strong groundwork for the market’s stability. Currently, the realized price has settled within the $2,700–$2,800 range, establishing a structural cost zone for Ethereum. With ETH lingering just above this pivotal zone, the market is confronted with a crucial inquiry: will this enduring support persist in stabilizing price, or will evolving macroeconomic factors ultimately test a framework that has remained intact for years?
The report highlights a notable shift in the ongoing debate surrounding Ethereum. The central question has shifted from the immediate concern of whether the $2,700–$2,800 accumulation zone will hold, to whether this enduring accumulation phase can continue indefinitely. Data reveals that Ethereum distinctly differentiates itself from the wider altcoin market when analyzed in this context. Since 2022, the majority of altcoins have experienced significant declines, failing to establish a lasting accumulation cost base. The lack of steady long-term buying activity sheds light on the weaker and more fragile recoveries seen throughout the altcoin sector. Ethereum has consistently shown its capacity to maintain the confidence of long-term holders during various challenging periods, including 2018, 2020, 2022, and the fluctuations observed in 2025.
However, markets evolve, and structural regimes are not permanent fixtures. Periods of seeming stability frequently represent moments when the foundational assumptions are at their most susceptible to transformation. Looking ahead, two scenarios emerge prominently. When ETH price hovers around or exceeds its accumulation cost, it indicates that long-term buyers are still active, highlighting Ethereum’s relative strength in comparison to many altcoins. A sustained break below this cost zone would indicate a significant behavioral shift among long-term holders—one that could call into question the notion that Ethereum has permanently moved beyond its pre-2020 valuation framework. In the current landscape, short-term price fluctuations capture the spotlight, yet it is the underlying structural conflict that could ultimately shape Ethereum’s forthcoming significant cycle.