In a volatile market, true strength is measured by stability. Ethereum has demonstrated precisely that. Following the crash, it has tested the $3,680 support level on four occasions, with each instance resulting in a bounce of approximately 17%. In essence, investor conviction remains steadfast as buyers adopt a defensive stance. Data provides valuable insights into this strength. Since July, a distinct divide has emerged in ETH’s MVRV ratio, highlighting the difference between stakers and the circulating supply. Prior to that date, both hovered around 1.5, indicating approximately 50% unrealized gains. However, since that time, the two groups have unmistakably begun to diverge.
As of press time, the MVRV for circulating ETH is reported at 1.5, whereas staked ETH is noted at 1.7. This indicates that stakers are holding approximately 20% more in unrealized profit, creating a “healthy” 10–20% disparity between the two. From a market perspective, it reveals the true conviction at play. Staked ETH holders are positioning themselves for long-term gains, whereas liquid tokens are more susceptible to profit-taking pressures. Structurally, this positions staking (with nearly 70% in unrealized gains) as a prominent strategy in Ethereum’s current cycle.
ETH’s declining profits indicate a potential market reset. As noted earlier, Ethereum’s circulating supply MVRV stood at 1.5. However, that’s a notable decline from the late-August peak of 1.85, when ETH reached its $4,900 all-time high. MVRV cooling-off indicates that approximately 35% of unrealized gains have been eliminated as short-term holders capitalized on their profits. This compression in profit margins indicates that the market is entering a cooling phase. Historically, MVRV levels below 1.0 have indicated strong accumulation zones, suggesting that ETH is gradually preparing for its next upward movement.
However, connecting this to the previous analysis reveals additional layers to the narrative. Shrinking profits and increasing staking conviction are narrowing the MVRV spread between staked and circulating ETH. With more than 36 million ETH locked, this could signify the initial phase of a wider structural rotation. Ethereum appears to be transitioning from a trading phase into an accumulation cycle. As staking expands, ETH’s foundation is solidifying, paving the way for a breakout fueled by genuine conviction rather than mere hype.