Tom Lee states that Ethereum could emerge as the near-term leader in the crypto market, with a target of reaching $12,000 by January, driven by market’s tokenization efforts and increasing growth expectations for smart-contract platforms. In an interview released on Nov. 10 with Tom Nash, Lee highlighted that although Bitcoin is still under-owned, “there’s a bigger move in Ethereum” anticipated in the coming weeks as capital shifts toward the infrastructure that supports stablecoins and tokenized assets. Lee anchored his analysis to a mix of technical and fundamental factors. Citing Funstrat’s head of technical strategy, he stated: “Mark Newton […] believes we could reach between $9,000 and $12,000 by January.” I believe that’s an accurate assessment. “I believe Ethereum […] will more than double between now and the end of the year or between now and January.” He stated that Bitcoin could hit the “high $100,000s, maybe even $200,000 by the end of the year,” while emphasizing that Ethereum probably has the greater near-term potential. The essence of the Ethereum thesis, as articulated by Lee, is that the demand side of crypto is transitioning toward applications reliant on smart contracts—exactly the area where Ethereum holds a strong position.
“Even Cathie Wood commented on it. She believes that stablecoins are undermining the demand for Bitcoin and gold, while tokenized gold is also detracting from Bitcoin’s appeal. But stablecoins and tokenized gold run on smart contract blockchains like Ethereum,” he said. He stated, “Wall Street is building and Larry Fink wants to tokenize everything on the […] blockchain.” Ethereum is becoming the focal point for individuals looking to elevate their growth expectations. Lee contended that this shift in growth expectations is as significant, if not more so, than the headline monetary policy during brief periods. While recognizing the Federal Reserve as a pivotal factor, he positioned the possibility of December easing as a potential driver for risk assets across the board—financials, small caps, and tech—and, by extension, crypto. “If they cut in December, they’re confirming they’re on an easing cycle,” he stated, labeling that as “really bullish” for equities most closely tied to growth and liquidity. According to Lee’s framework, these same flows bolster crypto assets, with a particular emphasis on Ethereum, as we approach year-end positioning.
The fund manager has identified the crypto setup as part of a broader “super-cycle” he has been analyzing for years. He asserts that markets remain in the initial stages of an AI-driven capital expenditure boom, coupled with a demographic landscape that sustains high demand for productive technology. That backdrop, he stated, has consistently caught bears off guard who relied on yield-curve inversions and comparisons to 1970s inflation. “People have a hard time understanding and grasping super cycles […] we look for story arcs that last 10 to 15 years,” he stated, contending that the last three years revealed “mass misconceptions” regarding recession and ongoing inflation that never aligned with reported earnings. Pressed on the potential risks associated with the call, Lee dismissed concerns about an imminent re-acceleration of inflation, asserting that oil prices would have to near $200 to truly deliver a growth shock to US households. “The most overrated risk is that inflation’s coming back,” he stated, highlighting the cooling housing and labor metrics. He asserted that recent claims regarding the resurgence of core services inflation were “dead wrong” when compared to the PCE series.
On the topic of policy path-dependence, he indicated that a December hold by Chair Powell would probably intensify political pressure for a leadership change, thereby dampening the medium-term effects on risk assets. In terms of timing, Lee views positioning as the immediate catalyst. He contended that institutions continue to lag behind their benchmarks after consistently missing out on rallies throughout 2023–2025, and that the closing weeks of the year frequently compel a scramble into outperforming sectors. “There is incredible demand for equities because people are really off-sides […] 80% are trailing their benchmark this year […] they’re going to be buying stocks,” he said, adding that the AI trade “is going to come back strong” and that crypto tends to correlate with that move. In the case of Ethereum, Lee’s argument can be distilled into a straightforward narrative: the infrastructure being developed is where the next phase of growth will materialize. Stablecoins, tokenized gold, and market’s broader tokenization agenda represent a flow that operates on programmable blockchains; according to him, the market is just starting to factor that in. “If you’re raising your growth expectations, then your discount to the future is going up,” Lee said, explaining why he believes ETH can “have a huge move into year end” and reach the $9,000–$12,000 range by January.