The recent dip in Ethereum’s value hasn’t deterred the major wallets. If anything, it’s drawing them in! A Bitmine-associated address has acquired millions in Ethereum, despite analysts cautioning that the asset is currently perched on its last significant support before a potential sharp decline. Tom Lee has put forth a valuation model suggesting that ETH could be valued anywhere from $12,000 to $62,500. This broad range seems to indicate an effort to appease a diverse audience. The upcoming events will challenge not only Ethereum’s price points but also the faith of its supporters. Tom Lee has released fresh figures regarding Ethereum, and they demand attention. The gap between them is so significant that it nearly serves as a stress test for the faith of all involved. According to his model, ETH’s “fair value” is estimated to be approximately $12,000, assuming it follows its long-term ETH/BTC average. If the market were to revert to the 2021 ratio, that figure would surge to $21,800. In the most optimistic scenario — where Ethereum becomes core settlement infrastructure — the estimate skyrockets to $62,500. All of this stands in stark contrast to today’s price of approximately $2,800.
A wallet associated with Bitmine has just executed a significant purchase, acquiring 21,537 ETH for approximately $59.17 million at around $2,750, all while retail traders were in a frenzy, panic-selling during the dip. This resembles the MicroStrategy-style accumulation observed in Bitcoin, but now it’s focused on Ethereum. Despite the pervasive anxiety circulating through social feeds, whale activity remains unyielding! Aggregated OI remains stable at approximately $15.46B, indicating a lack of panic in the market. No significant leverage flush has occurred, nor has there been a surge of forced liquidations or a frantic dash for the exits. If traders were genuinely fearful, OI would have seen a significant decline, yet it remains steady. Funding shows a slight positive at 0.0053, indicating that traders are favoring long positions while maintaining a cautious approach. This frequently emerges as the market finds stability following a downward shift. The market might appear unstable, yet resilient investors are making their move. In the latest data, ETH ETFs have experienced approximately $500 million in net outflows, marking one of the most significant pullbacks in recent months. Total net assets have concurrently declined from their recent peaks, prompting ETF investors to cut back on their exposure instead of increasing it.
What stands out here is that despite ETF flows turning negative, major players are scooping up millions in spot ETH. On one hand, regulated ETF investors are pulling back, probably responding to price weakness and broader macroeconomic factors. Conversely, it appears that whales purchasing directly from the market are unfazed! This time, Ethereum finds itself with little to no margin for error. On the chart, ETH is positioned precisely on its ultimate structural base, the identical zone that supported the entire 2022-2025 range. Historically, during previous cycles (2016-2018 and 2018-2021), when ETH fell below this level, the price experienced rapid declines due to a lack of support beneath it. Analysts are dubbing this moment “the cliff.” The gravity of this moment is amplified by the candle behavior. Sellers are demonstrating significant strength, and the increasing volume confirms this trend. The price is faltering precisely at a critical juncture. However, the sentiment does not align with the chart. Whales are accumulating assets. Crowd psychology is shifting towards a bullish sentiment. ETF outflows and spot accumulation are indicating contrasting trends.
The situation presents a peculiar blend; while the sentiments are optimistic, the framework leaves much to be desired. If ETH loses this level, the next support isn’t just a minor drop. It’s significantly reduced. If this support holds, everything changes. Whale accumulation is beginning to appear savvy, Bitmine’s dip-buying signals a trend, and those long-term fair value models are starting to seem much more credible. However, should this level break… ETF outflows, a weakening structure, and the significant gap below the price will become critical factors in no time. There’s limited support below. Only vacant space.